India @ 2047

That India will emerge as the 3rd largest economy worldwide by 2050 is repeatedly projected by a number of reputed international agencies over last decade and half in their assessments of long-term global economic growth scenarios using various economic assessment and forecasting methodologies. The estimated size of India’s economy by 2050 is US$ 28,021 Billion in terms of MER and US$ 44,128 Billion in terms of PPP at 2016 base. India in 2016 comprised 7% of world GDP at PPP terms, which is projected to rise steadily to over 15% by 2050, which will be a remarkable increase of 8% points, gaining the most ground by any large economy.

At the same time, India’s performance in Global trade is also projected to grow rapidly by 2050 with global export value increasing from US$ 655 Billion in 2015 to US$ 12,814 Billion in 2050, with the global share rising from 2.5% and global rank of 10th position in 2015 to 8.9% and 2nd position in 2050. Similarly, India’s global imports by value is projected to grow from US$ 815 Billion with a global share of 3.1% and rank of 8th position in 2015 to US$ 12,930 Billion with a global share of 9.0% and rank of 2nd position in 2050. In terms of total global trade therefore, India’s value is projected to grow from US$ 1,470 Billion with a global share of 2.8% and rank of 10th position in 2015 to US$ 25.744 Billion with a global share of 9.0% and rank of 2nd position in 2050. This means that India will experience the largest expansion in global trade value in terms of growth rate and global ranking in the next three decades.

Despite the set-backs due to COVID-19 pandemic and its resultant impact on India’s economy, which Reserve Bank of India estimates as output loss for individual years’ as INR 19.1 lakh crore for 2020-21; INR 17.1 lakh crore for 2021-22; and INR 16.4 lakh crore for 2022-23, respectively and that pandemic induced economic losses will be overcome only by 2034-35, pursuing a vision of Repair, Rethink, Reconstruct, Reconfigure will allow regaining the full potential India’s economy back to its ambitious 2050 trajectory.

Acknowledging this potential, the Hon’ble PM of India, in his 76th Independence Day speech has pledged to make India a developed country by the 100th anniversary of independent India in 2047.

GFST’s India@2047 vertical believing in this vision, aspires to contribute to its fullest in its achievement. It proposes to invest in India’s youthful and fast-growing working-age population to support entrepreneurship, productivity and innovation which in turn would boost investment, demand and output. Strengthening macro-economic fundamentals and institutions; sustained economic reforms in terms of sector-specific policies to improve productivity, creating flexible labour markets for industry, with better benefits and safety nets for workers and improving the ease and reducing the cost of doing business; financial-sector reforms and streamlining fiscal resources; capital investment and technological; addressing the problem of “missing middle” of mid-size firms in the economy by supporting start-ups and MSMEs through accelerator, network and seed fund services are other focal areas of the vertical.

While the central government’s pro-growth agenda is critical, states are equal partners in the India@2047 developed country ambition and they too need to pursue their own respective plans of action in synchrony with the national vision. GFST under the India@2047 vertical will actively engage with willing states in contributing to and servicing their growth and development vision within its focal areas of pursue.